Monday, December 20, 2010

I'm back! And what a year.

I have returned and much has happened during the year, personally and politically. As I thought, this year was fun. The 2010 election yielded a net gain of 63 seats for the Republicans in the House, well over what they needed to take the House. The last time any party made a net gain that high was 1948. In the Senate, Democrats were relieved at their loss of six seats. Most observers believed it would be more. This year Sarah Palin established herself as a force to be reckoned with, albeit an unstable and possibly a destructive one for the GOP in the future. This year, the Tea Party proved it was not a joke: First to the GOP by defeating a number of incumbents in the primaries, and then the Democrats by snatching the House. Some of the most delightful victories this year were Mark Kirk taking Obama's seat for the Republicans, Marco Rubio winning his Senate race in Florida, Rand Paul winning his Senate race in Kentucky, political opportunist Arlen Specter finally meeting defeat, liberal firebrand Alan Grayson losing reelection in a center-right district, and the sweep of the Midwest and South. Even in the East Coast the GOP did well, but were limited in gains in New England.

What's ahead for the Republicans now? I honestly can't be sure. But if they really want to win the White House in 2012, they will have to pick one of the following candidates:

Gov. Rick Perry
Former Gov. Mike Huckabee
Sen. John Thune
Soon-to-be former Gov. Tim Pawlenty
Gov. Mitch Daniels
Former Gov. Mitt Romney

I discount both Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin. Gingrich because if he couldn't keep his party together and chart a course for them as Speaker of the House, how's he going to do it as President? And Palin is still inexperienced and will be the oval office gaffe machine. Moreover, she can't win. Her appeal is limited to the choir.

Now for the Democrats, in spite of the GOP takeover of the House, it is unlikely they will be able to play offense credibly or effectively in 2012. Think of it this way: Is the public going to seriously focus on just one of the Houses in a Presidential race? I think not. I wouldn't discount the possibility of an effective offense so easily had the Democrats lost the Senate as well, as the legislative branch would be more unified against Obama. Obama's got an uphill battle in 2012, as he will have to win back some important states like Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, which turned against him this year. Even in his home state of Illinois, the House delegation only has one Democrat from a district that is not in Chicago-Cook County. For at least two years, the future for the GOP looks good. However, this is no time for the GOP to get secure. Remember, two years changed a lot for Obama and it can change a lot for the GOP too.


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